科技史上最荒唐的 15 個預言

奇事趣聞日日睇 於 12/01/2015 發表 收藏文章
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俗話說得好:「預測未來很容易,讓它變成現實卻很難。」當我們在迎接新的一年到來時,我們也迎來了無數對未來科技發展趨勢的預測。有趣的是當你回看過去的預言時,你就可以發現誰是預言帝,而誰的預測完全悖於現實。

對於幾乎所有的科學技術預言,通常都會存在爭論,如預言的表述以及來龍去脈是否清晰,預言是否有理有據。有時候這種爭論比預言本身要有趣的多。更奇葩的是有一些大錯特錯的預言竟然家喻戶曉了。比如 1943 年 IBM 董事長 Thomas Watson 的「著名」預言:「全球市場只需要五台電腦就夠了。」

以下是 Forbes 整理出的 15 個科技史上最荒唐的預言 (15 Worst Tech Predictions Of All Time)

1876:「美國人需要電話,我們不需要,我們有足夠的郵差。」——英國郵局首席工程師William Preece。

“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office.
1876:「這種所謂的『電話』毛病太多,不能當成一種通訊方式。」——西聯電報公司總裁William Orton。

“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.” — William Orton, President of Western Union.

1889:「研究交流電只是浪費時間,沒人會去使用它,永遠都不會。」——愛迪生。

“Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.” — Thomas Edison, American inventor

1903:「騎馬是會一直流傳下去的交通方式,而汽車只是一時的潮流而已。」這是密西根州儲蓄銀行主席在奉勸亨利福特的律師不要投資福特汽車公司時說的。

“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.” — President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.

1921:「這種無線音樂盒(收音機)沒有長期的商業價值。誰會為一個不知道誰送來的消息付費呢?」——David Sarnof f的合夥人如此回應關於投資無線電收音機的建議。

“The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?” — Associates of David Sarnoff responding to the latter’s call for investment in the radio.

1946:「在最初的六個月後,電視將失去所有它之前占有的市場。人們會很快厭倦每天晚上盯著一個塑膠盒箱子。」——福克斯總經理 Darryl Zanuck

“Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” — Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th Century Fox.

1955:「核動力真空吸塵器很可能在十年之內成為現實。」——Lewyt 真空吸塵器公司總裁 Alex Lewyt

“Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.” — Alex Lewyt, President of the Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Company.

1959:「在人類登月之前,你的郵件將通過導航飛彈在幾個小時之內從紐約送到澳洲。我們將迎來火箭郵件時代。」——艾森豪威爾時期郵政大臣 Arthur Summerfield

“Before man reaches the moon, your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail.” — Arthur Summerfield, U.S. Postmaster General under President Eisenhower.

1961:「在美國,想要使用太空通信衛星來提供更好的電話、電報、電視或廣播服務,這是不可能的。」——FCC 委員 T.A.M. Craven

“There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States.” — T.A.M. Craven, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) commissioner.

1966:「網上購物,儘管可行,終將失敗。」——時代雜誌

“Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.” — Time Magazine.

1981:「手機絕不會取代固定電話。」——發明家 Marty Cooper

“Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.” — Marty Cooper, inventor.

1995:「我預測網路將很快發展為引人注目的超級新星,然後在 1996 年潰不成軍。」——Robert Metcalfe,3COM 的創始人和以太網的發明者。

“I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” — Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com and inventor of Ethernet.

2005:「貌似沒有那麽多我想看的影片。」——YouTube CTO 兼聯合創始人 Steve Chen。

“There’s just not that many videos I want to watch.” — Steve Chen, CTO and co-founder of YouTube expressing concerns about his company’s long term viability.

2006:「所有人都在問我蘋果公司什麽時候推出第一個手機。我的回答是:可能永遠都不會。」——紐約時報 David Pogue。

“Everyone’s always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, ‘Probably never.’” — David Pogue, The New York Times.

2007:「iPhone 不可能得到多少市場份額的。」微軟總裁 Steve Ballmer。

“There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” — Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.

——-

那麽問題來了,你的新年科技預測是什麼呢?


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